I predict that location based functions will explode in 2011. But, I think that will happen due to the largest and newest site to jump on the location-based bandwagon. Facebook is the 500 million fan gorilla of the bunch. They debuted Facebook Places this year.
Facebook Places has some growing pains to overcome. It’s nowhere near what it could be at this time.
But I predict by the end of 2011, they will become the dominant player in the location based realm destroying Gowalla and Foursquare. According to a Business Insider article, 30 million people have already tried Facebook places. Currently, very few are active users. Foursquare on the other hand has approximately 4 million users which are considerably more active. Gowalla sufficiently less.
With Facebook’s track record for change and the recent debut of Facebook deals, they will continue to innovate and win more people over. In a recent conversation with Matt LaCasse during #journchat, he summed this up beautifully.
“Facebook is making itself absolutely unique so no one CAN compete with it.” #Capitalism (via @mattlacasse)
It’s all in the numbers. Facebook already has a massive 500 million person audience in front of them and the seed planted for a “Foursquare killer” idea. All they need to do is fine tune it. That’s easier said than done. But, Facebook will continue to recruit the top talent and will find a way to turn their idea into something much bigger. They just need to come up with a compelling reason/call to action why Facebook members should check in places.
No matter how much Foursquare and Gowalla innovate and come up with game changing ideas, they will still end up losing out because they still have to build a larger audience. Foursquare is already outnumbered seven to one. The odds aren’t in their favor.
What do you think about location based apps? Do you think Foursquare and Gowalla will eventually fizzle out? Or, will they find a way to continue to compete with Facebook? Please share your comments below.
I’ve never used Facebook Places but I use foursquare all the time. I don’t think I would use it because I don’t publish any of my location stuff on Facebook. That’s just me though.
Thanks for sharing Regina. Right now, I find I have much more use for Foursquare too. But, I’m banking on Facebook rolling out more innovative concepts with their Facebook deals and places in 2011. I think that will change people’s opinions.
Interesting article. Good read. I’d argue the opposite though. Even though facebook does have the user they lack in the education. On a marketers end I could see where advertisers and other comm pros may use facebook over fousquare based on reach alone. Other than that, just because facebook creates a “feature” doesn’t mean people will use it.
Think of facebook groups, this new message platform, questions, and revamped events. Have any of these new features or updates garnered an increase in usage? Probably not. Studies suggest that most user activity is in comments. We all know that everyone tags people, updates pictures and statuses. Not location, groups, messaging or the like.
The “if you build it, they will come” mantra doesn’t necessarily work here, in my opinion. Foursqaure has a solid base of users and interesting model that embraces gaming mechanics, discovery methods and user rewards, all things that facebook doesn’t do.
FourSquare will continue to get stronger, especially when they release media based location check-ins. Something facebook will lack to do since they bought HotPotato to basically help with location (even though they were decades behind foursquare in location).
Regardless, it will be interesting to see what happens and how a basic idea of “where I’m at”
will go to next, no pun intended. 🙂
You make several great points, Patrick. I definitely agree with you on the fact that businesses will gravitate towards Facebook Places more due to the size and reach of the market.
As of now, Facebook places is just another feature like groups. I think throughout next year, Facebook will make changes that will better integrate places with the features that Facebook users already use readily, like “tagging” and comments. But, it will be very interesting to see how Foursquare and Facebook Places will evolve next year.
Definitely. Tagging I think will pose as more of a problem than a benefit for a lot of people. Features are cool but those who use them aren’t necessarily “cool.” Consider being tagged at a strip club as a joke.
It will have a lot of problems I think, because facebook they never offer education. 2011 will be interesting for sure.
Tagging already is a problem on Facebook, and it definitely can become an even bigger problem with Facebook Places. I definitely agree that education on the part of Facebook is needed, and sadly isn’t happening.
You definitely bring up some great ideas. I’d love for you to write them in a guest response post.
Great post, Jessica. I tend to agree with Patrick. Many argued when Facebook Places first launched that it would crush its predecessors like FourSquare, Gowalla, etc. However, the day after Facebook Places launched, FourSquare experienced a record breaking number of signups.
FourSquare has a loyal base, an identifiable purpose and reward system. The ‘meat’ that is missing from Facebook’s lackluster effort. I am sure we will see Places grow, it is Facebook after-all.
I agree we will see an explosion in geo-location and geo-social activity in 2011. I mean, most major car manufacturers are going to be adding geo-locations capabilities to their 2011 vehicles.
Regards,
Efrain
@r_efrain_ayala
I agree with you that geo-location and geo-social activity will explode in 2011, and it’s going to be very interesting to see what direction it takes. As for Facebook places, I think it’s going through growing pains now, trying to figure out what their goals are. I think as it matures, it will continue to evolve and better integrate with the rest of Facebook. Facebook’s big advantage over Foursquare is in the numbers. 30 million people have already tested Facebook Places. Now, most aren’t active users yet. But, I bet as changes occur, the number of active users will increase. Then, that’s where they will begin to crush Foursquare’s 4 million users.
I think we can both agree that Facebook Places has become a positive thing for geo-social activity. Facebook Places introduced millions of social media users to check-in services that may not have been aware of these services before. I agree, Places is still trying to find its footing, but that is where FourSquare has the advantage. Yes, Facebook can crush most of its competition with its its size. But, as we both know, numbers don’t dictate everything – look at the number of corporate partnerships FourSquare has inked.
Again, great post!
I’d love to hear your thoughts on entertainment check-in networks like Get Glue, etc.
I agree that numbers aren’t everything, but I think Facebook Places is still in its earlier stages, and the innovative ideas will be coming soon.
In addition, I would need to do more some additional research on Get Glue, but I’m open to writing a post on that. I’m also open to you writing a guest post about these entertainment check-in networks. If you’re interested, shoot me an email at jmalnik@gmail.com.
[…] For some background, this is a guest response post to my previous blog post, Hello 2011, Goodbye Foursquare and Gowalla. […]